Some information about the Middle-East and current events

I have read western news reports about Egypt and noticed the lack of similar reports about Iran. The media have chosen sides again, as did our politicians who called on Mubarak to step down but won't openly point out the complete illegitimacy of the Iranian regime.

Here is some information on current events that everyone might find useful. My sources are this poll: washingtoninstitute.org…pollock-Egyptpoll.pdf and friends and acquaintances that could confirm the poll and tell me more.

Here it goes.

 

1. El-Baradei is celebrated by the western media as a leader of the Egyptian opposition. In reality he is an Islamist, almost unknown in Egypt and not very popular. [Former president] Mubarak and [former secret service head] Suleiman are more popular.

2. Only 15% of Egyptians approve of the Muslim Brotherhood, practically noone supports the Muslim Brotherhood leaders.

3. 37% support the peace treaty with Israel, 22% oppose it. Only 5% think the protests were about Mubarak being too pro-Israel.

3. Ironically the US fares less well among Egyptians. 36% vs 29% think that Egypt should have good vs bad relations with the US. And 8% think the protests were about Mubarak being too pro-US. Note that these were the same people asked, i.e. more Egyptians want good relations with Israel than with the US and Mubarak was seen as too pro-US by more people than he was seen as too pro-Israel. The US have lost trust in the ME in the last few years!

4. Only 18% of Egyptians support Hamas or Iran. (Most of the remaining support the PLO. But I guarantee that this will end once they find out what the PLO are actually doing.)

All of the above are based on the poll confirmed by talking to friends. I.e. I myself also found that of 10 Egyptians about 4 support peace with Israel while 2 are against it. I have also seen them complain more about the US than about Israel. I had Egyptian friends introduce me to Egyptians who as a pro-Israeli Jew I wouldn't have met otherwise, so there is little selection bias. Plus I accidentally started a fight between pro and anti-Mubarak Egyptians last week, before Mubarak stepped down. I explained to the anti-Mubarak guy that if he wants to shout at me he either has to speak English or very very slow Arabic.

5. There are major protests in Iran. The BBC are lying when they speak of a "few thousand".

6. Bibi Netanyahu is an idiot. (In case that wasn't yet obvious to everyone.)

7. Ariel Sharon remains well-respected among Egyptians, including among those who dislike Israel.

8. There is a crisis in Jordan between "West-Bankers" (native Palestinians) and "East-Bankers" (Bedouins who support the king). Palestinians are 92% of Jordan's population and the king has begun to strip them of citizenship. Queen Rania is loved by the west but hated by Palestinians (even though she is Palestinian). I hear stories about shopping sprees etc.. Perhaps surprisingly the Palestinians of Jordan are less conservative than the Bedouins and tend to vote Islamists out of parliament when given a chance. But the voting system in Jordan gives fewer seats to cities (where Palestinians live) and comparatively more seats to the countryside (where East-Bankers live). The West-Bank has Jordanian citizens but no Bedouins or country side.

9. There are Kurdish protests in Syria that nobody is reporting.

10. There are protests in Bahrain and Yemen which are not heavily reported.

11. Thousands of Tunisians are fleeing the country. This is perhaps widely reported now.

12. Egyptians are on massive strikes. Egypt needs economic aid and lots of it. This is the moment for the US to shine!

13. Both Hamas and the PLO have prohibited protests supporting the Egyptians against Mubarak. The PLO has also defended Mubarak together with Israel to the last minute. This hasn't cost Israel but it will cost the PLO.

14. There was a protest planned for Syria but nothing came of it (except for the Kurdish protests).

15. There are protests coming in Gaza.

 

There you go. What the media don't tell you.

 

 

30,884 views 27 replies
Reply #1 Top

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Reply #2 Top

Thanks for the info & insights, Leauki.  Good to see you back.

Reply #3 Top

Egyptians are on massive strikes. Egypt needs economic aid and lots of it. This is the moment for the US to shine!
End of quote

I don't think we need to give Egypt anything right now Leuaki.  We're flat broke.

Besides, they'll appreciate Democracy more if they get it all on their own.  Then no one can say it was handed to them, or paid for by us or anyone else.

 

Reply #4 Top

I don't think we need to give Egypt anything right now Leuaki. We're flat broke.

Besides, they'll appreciate Democracy more if they get it all on their own. Then no one can say it was handed to them, or paid for by us or anyone else.
End of quote

There is a lot the US can do that won't cost much money. Convert military aid into building hospitals. Send doctors to teach in Egyptian hospitals. Give preferential visas to Egyptian students. Give diplomatic support for any new democratic regime.

The Egyptians don't know what's ahead of them. They think that democracy brings quick wealth. It's going to get worse economically before it gets better. The Egyptians are not prepared for that.

Israel should also do a lot now, like invite Egyptians to visit the country, sponsor their trips. (I am doing that privately.) It's not expensive to sponsor a few hundred Egyptian students so they can visit Israel. It will cost a few hundred thousand dollars and pay off dramatically over the next few years.

Reply #5 Top

Besides, they'll appreciate Democracy more if they get it all on their own. Then no one can say it was handed to them, or paid for by us or anyone else.
End of quote

Although I can agree with you in the end they will need help from someone as they may not be in a position to fight on their own. What we should not do is fight for them but simply help them in ways that don't make us the ones doing it for them. We may be short on dough but we should help where possible if in the end it will benefit us as well.

Besides, we didn't win our freedom by fighting alone and the WW's of the past were not won by fighting alone. We can't simply sit on the side lines and we can't expect a thank you every time we try to help. It's just the way the world works.

Reply #6 Top

Besides, we didn't win our freedom by fighting alone and the WW's of the past were not won by fighting alone. We can't simply sit on the side lines and we can't expect a thank you every time we try to help. It's just the way the world works.
End of quote

Exactly.

But do note that if you stand alone as the helper, the people you helped will hate you for it.

Reply #7 Top

Besides, we didn't win our freedom by fighting alone
End of quote

Granted the French had a dog in the fight secretly at first...but they also had a whole agenda of their own which came out later in direct declarations of war with England.  We were their excuse.  But you are right, they're beef with England helped us.

This is an important distinction imo and what makes the two situations vastly different.  Wanting independence and being prepared to fight, suffer and die, (which Americans were prepared to do without France) is completely different from wanting wealth and waiting/expecting the rest of the world to come to your aid.

The Egyptians don't know what's ahead of them. They think that democracy brings quick wealth. It's going to get worse economically before it gets better. The Egyptians are not prepared for that.
End of quote

So do they want Democracy or quick wealth?  Because if they want quick wealth more, then no amount of help is gonna get them through the growing pains of Democracy when it doesn't materialize.

I think we should help, (not financially) with human rights type things like you mentioned (hospitals, food, etc).  But I believe it is very important they define and bargain for their own eventual form of government.  They have to live it.

 

 

Reply #8 Top

But do note that if you stand alone as the helper, the people you helped will hate you for it.
End of quote

Why is that?

Reply #9 Top

Thanks Leauki for the article. Very interesting points to ponder.

Egyptians are on massive strikes. Egypt needs economic aid and lots of it. This is the moment for the US to shine!
End of quote

I don't think we need to give Egypt anything right now Leuaki. We're flat broke.
End of quote

Yes, that's true we are flat broke and worse.....Obama is still trying to spend more than the US is taking in and can afford. 

Egypt was already getting plenty of economic aid from us and according to Obama's 2012 budget Egypt along with Isreal will be getting even more.

I'm sorry I don't know how to do links so Here's the breaking story.

 

 

 

Reply #10 Top

Quoting Tova7, reply 8

But do note that if you stand alone as the helper, the people you helped will hate you for it.
Why is that?
End of Tova7's quote

For the same reason friendship with married couples do not survive a divorce.  if you take sides, and they reconcile, both will hate you. If you do not take sides, then they will not consider you their friend. In other words, damned if you do and damned if you don't.

 

As for the article, while I have no arguments with any of the points, now is not the time for America to get involved, Period.  for 2 reasons - one that Tova gave (we are busted) and the second is for the reason I stated above.

It is a no win, and America is already looked at poorly.  Nothing we do is going to change that.  Not because of lack of trying (Obama will and fail miserably), but because the animosity is built on lies.  The truth is out there, but even useful idiots in this country still parrot the lies.  Which means they are not going to believe the truth in any event.

Now is the time for France and England to step forward.  It is their mess. And they need to take the lead as regardless of what truth is out there, they do not have the negatives and can possibly help much more than America can.

Reply #11 Top

Its tough to say with polling data if its correct or not, at least until you have many different polls taken with the same query. so I can't say with certainty that any of that polling data is correct. I can say with certainty that Egyptian hate Israelis. Why do I say this and how do I come to this conclusion? A few years ago the Egyptians had a ship capsizing and when the Israelis offered to rescue the Egyptians the response back was that they would: "rather drown than be rescued by Jews." If that's not extreme hate then I have no idea what is, regardless of whatever polls we dig up. And yes, I agree with the others, let the Egyptians slug it out and pay their own way for whatever future they want. I am filled with revulsion by these people for what they did to that CBS reporter. There is no place in America where a crowd of men would stand around and watch a woman raped and beaten in a public square. I don't care if we ever see these people again or what becomes of their future,. We need to explore and drill for our own energy and cut the cord.

Reply #12 Top

Its tough to say with polling data if its correct or not, at least until you have many different polls taken with the same query.
End of quote

Don't you think I took that into account?

As I said, I only used the poll as a starting point for the article. My actual statements are my own. I did my own research. So the source for most of the above is simply me.

The point here is simply that you can believe me or not but I think I am much better informed than the media.

 

so I can't say with certainty that any of that polling data is correct. I can say with certainty that Egyptian hate Israelis.

End of quote

Some do, some don't. Generally Arabs (including Egyptians) are more likely to let their hatred out. My informed guess is that the number of Egyptians that hate Jews or Israelis is about the same as the number of Europeans that hate Jews or Israelis. It's just that in Europe you can be fined for saying it out loud whereas in Egypt you can be beaten up (and under Mubarak tortured) for saying the opposite.

However, more and more pro-Israeli Egyptians are speaking up.

I am more worried about the new middle-class Egyptians who quite politically correct copy the anti-Israel propaganda and racism from the west, i.e. the idea that Palestinians by virtue of not being Africans "deserve" a standard of living much higher than the (compared with Egypt) high standard of living they currently have.

 

 

Reply #13 Top

The point here is simply that you can believe me or not but I think I am much better informed than the media.
End of quote

Leuaki- I love your insights and logic.  I don't think you're infallible, but I always learn something from your posts.  Usually a lot of somethings.

I'm fairly ignorant of Egyptian politics.  So, in your opinion, what would be best case scenario for Egypt?  And how would that best case scenario impact the rest of the world?  (If you have time.)

Thanks!

Reply #14 Top

Quoting Tova7, reply 13


Leauki- I love your insights and logic.  I don't think you're infallible, but I always learn something from your posts.  Usually a lot of somethings.

End of Tova7's quote

Nah, infallible I am not; but better informed than the media I am.

 

I'm fairly ignorant of Egyptian politics.  So, in your opinion, what would be best case scenario for Egypt?  And how would that best case scenario impact the rest of the world?  (If you have time.)

End of quote

The best case scenario is a liberal democracy. I think it is possible. A liberal democracy would be controlled by the upper classes. That would be good for the west. Egypt's upper classes studied in Europe and the US and are heavily westernised.

A likely scenario is a military dictatorship with ongoing protests.

The most likely scenario is a sham democracy under the direction of the military. That is not bad for the US and Israel but it is bad for the Egyptians.

Another likely scenario is that Egypt simply becomes a loyal Arab League democracy and as such a diplomatic danger to the world. But there will be no war.

I keep hearing from Egyptians that they will make Egypt into a liberal democracy but I think they are being too optimistic.

Reply #15 Top

The point here is simply that you can believe me or not but I think I am much better informed than the media.
End of quote

My retarded mule is more informed than the Media!  You should set your bar higher than that! ;)

The most likely scenario is a sham democracy under the direction of the military. That is not bad for the US and Israel but it is bad for the Egyptians.
End of quote

I agree with you here.

Reply #16 Top

My retarded mule is more informed than the Media!
End of quote

Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha..........

I have some thoughts on Egypt but no time right now.

 

Reply #17 Top

I don't see any likely outcome that will be 'good' for the Egyptians.  Looks to be shaping up as Iran2, though you're not hearing that from our press.

Reply #18 Top

Quoting Daiwa, reply 17
I don't see any likely outcome that will be 'good' for the Egyptians.  Looks to be shaping up as Iran2, though you're not hearing that from our press.
End of Daiwa's quote

Actually, you are hearing about it all the time.

Ever since the beginning of the protests western media were busy claiming that the main opposition group were the Muslim Brotherhood and that the Muslim Brotherhood had peaceful and democratic goals, preparing the west for a takeover by the Brotherhood. They also celebrated El-Baradei, the spokesperson for the Brotherhood, as a "leader" of the opposition even though he is virtually unknown in Egypt.

The Brotherhood, meanwhile, has not participated in the protests much.

The stark contrast with Iran is that the media forgot to celebrate the fanatics before the revolution and then tried to celebrate them after it began without paying attention to whether they were even involved.

 

Reply #19 Top

Well, Jimmeh Cottah says they're OK guys (the BroHood) so I'm sure it will all work out fine if they get involved now.

Reply #20 Top

Quoting Daiwa, reply 19
Well, Jimmeh Cottah says they're OK guys (the BroHood) so I'm sure it will all work out fine if they get involved now.
End of Daiwa's quote

Khomeni was a swell guy too - just ask peanut brain.

And Leauki, while the press is not "ignoring" the parallel, they are poo-pooing it.  Or, in the case of the state run media here, are parroting the administration line of "they are non-secular good guys" (The administration REALLY said that!).

Reply #21 Top

Leauki,

I read this article, http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/news.aspx/142364

and while the warship aspect is the point of the story, it makes me wonder a little bit about the Suez Canal. 

Won't the destabilization in Egypt affect its security?  Ya know, whoever controls the canal, controls the oil, controls the world.  (Well not really, but adding 6,000 miles onto a tanker's journey will certainly raise the cost of the oil it carries.)

I think if we get involved, overtly involved, it will likely have something to do with the fact "2.4m barrels of oil are shipped through the canal each day while the SuMed pipeline carries 2.5m a day. That's around 5.5% of world output.."

(The SuMed pipeline runs close to the canal, connecting the Ain Sukhna terminal on the Gulf of Suez to Sidi Kerir on the coast of the Mediterranean, and is just as important as the canal. SuMed transports oil, partly from very large tankers that need to offload some of their cargo before they can fit into the canal.)

Actually the following link has a pretty good discussion on the world impact.  I think this will play a role in how much we decide to help.

  http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/feb/01/suez-canal-egypy-q-and-a

 

Reply #22 Top

The Egyptian army won't allow a closure of the canal.

As for the warships, anyone can pass through the canal. I wonder what the warships want. I haven't heard anything except what Arutz Sheva (Israel National News) have reported. I have no sources that could tell me anything about warships, I'm afraid. :-)

You have more military experience than I. You tell me what two warships can do.

 

Reply #23 Top

As for the warships, anyone can pass through the canal.
End of quote

Iranian officials have announced plans to deploy warships to areas near Israel and to dock at a Syrian port for a year. Such a move would be a "serious provocation," a senior official said. There is no justification for Iran to deploy its battleships to the Mediterranean Sea.~taken from 1st article linked above

It appears provocation is the goal.

As usual.

Reply #24 Top

Maybe the warships are meant to protect the next blockade runner?

I hope Lieberman is prepared.

Reply #25 Top

Never mind. Egypt didn't let the ships pass.