May Political Machine Prediction: Kerry defeats Bush

Too early to be sure but...

from JoeUser Forums
We're still tweaking the algorithms for The Political Machine and for what it's worth, we have put together our first official model prediction of this November's election based on our current variables (which are obviously subject to change).

Bush loses to Kerry by between 20 to 40 electoral votes. There are a few reasons we're predicting this.

First of all, there really aren't that many toss-up states. The media has states like Michigan and Wisconsin and Washington State and Oregon as toss-ups. The only possible way they're toss-ups is if Ralph Nader is able to get a significant share of the vote. But even there, people who think Nader is going to get 6% of the vote aren't realizing the infrastructure involved in getting onto the ballots in all the states and maintaining some semblance of momentum.

So who should be Kerry's Vice Presidential pick? If he's smart, he'll pick Richard Gephardt. By bringing him in, he gets Missouri and probably Iowa (our model doesn't yet handle the VP pick effect very well). So write this prediction down so that if we're right we can be oowed and awed appropriately:

Without Gephardt VP choice:

Kerry 279 / Bush 259

With Gephardt VP choice:

Kerry 290 / Bush 248

Now, you say to yourself, how can you be so sure? We're not. We're confident we'll be close but there are a few real toss-ups in which the events between now and election day will matter. Here are the real toss-up states:

Ohio
Missouri
Iowa
West Virginia
Bush has to win all of these to win. Barely.

States that COULD become toss-up states based on events:

New Mexico
Arkansas
Wisconsin
Bill Richardson as a VP pick could shore up NM if something causes it to be a toss-up, but that's unlikely. General Clark could bring Arkansas into play.

Some pollsters have said that some blue states have become "purple". I'd like to know which ones they think are purple now. I can't think of any blue states that have softened since 2000. Wisconsin? Possibly. But only if Nader becomes a major factor there again. We do think Florida will be much more solid for Bush this time, for what it's worth.

But go ahead and look at the map above, which states do you think Bush will win that we're wrong about?

We'll keep making predictions, after all, what good are computer models for? And you can then check the accuracy after the election to see how well we did.



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19,704 views 18 replies
Reply #1 from JoeUser Forums Top
Was this analysis done with the incorrect electoral vote numbers in the last beta? Or have you dixed that error? Not sure how you handled DC either (which will go to Kerry, as DC always goes Democratic).

--Aaron
Reply #2 from JoeUser Forums Top
You are wrong about Arizona, Missouri, West Virginia and Pennsylvania.

Let me start with Pennsylvania Most people don't Comprehend the Politics of Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is a Democratic State, but ONLY because of Unions and Democratic Economics.

Pennsylvania is Conservative on Culture Issues. Many people simply don't understand this because when they think Pennsylvania they think Philadelphia. Philadelphia is NOT represenative of the rest of the state. Even Pittsburgh is mostly socially Conservative.

The biggest problem for Kerry is going to be Western Pennsylvania. People there are FURIOUS over the Same-Sex Marriage issue. Western Pennsylvania is very Democratic, but these people every now and then get upset enough over a cultural issue to vote Republican, Same-Sex Marriage is going to do it.

I have read newspaper articles with people being interviewed in Western Pennsylvania who stated that they are not going to vote for a Democrat for ANYTHING again due to the Democrats support for Same-Sex Marriage. These were people who voted for Clinton and Gore.

Several Recent Polls have been done in Pennsylvania on the Same-Sex Marriage issue, the entire State went 63% opposed. Western Pennsylvania had the highest amount of opposition in the State (76% Opposed) with numbers that approached the level of opposition in Alabama (80% Opposed).

One Western Pennsylvania County hadn't had a Republican Majority on it's County Commission since 1932, After the Same-Sex Marriage issue started heating up in October of 2003, Republicans captured two of the three seats on the County Commission. It shocked the Democratic Establishment in the County, because no one figured on it happening.

I can't convey in words how upset People in Western Pennsylvania are over this. If Kerry can't turn out high Democratic Vote in Western Pennsylvania, he isn't going to get enough in Philadelphia to win the State.

Every Single Recent Poll done in Pennsylvania has Bush equal to or Leading Kerry. This is soley because Democrats aren't getting the numbers out of Western PA that they need.

West Virginia Is very Similar to Western Pennsylvania, and the Cultural Issues are going to give Bush That state as well. (The last Poll had Bush up 49-45 there). The lowest Bush Scored on recent polls was tied with Kerry, Three have him up anywhere from 3-5 points.

Kerry is DREAMING if he thinks he is going to carry Arizona or Missouri. Recent polls have him up 8 points in Arizona and 7 in Missouri. Its going to take more than Gephardt to hand Missouri to Bush.

By my Calculation this leaves your analysis 47 EVs off.

302-236 Bush
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Reply #3 from JoeUser Forums Top
We'll see.
Reply #4 from JoeUser Forums Top
I doubt gay marriage will be the #1 issue for voters in PA come November. Kerry and Bush both oppose gay marriage, BTW, and Bush's doomed attempts to pass a constitutional ammendment are about as unpopular as gay marriage itself. Kerry will continue to play it safe on this one. There is little he can do about it anyway.
Reply #5 from JoeUser Forums Top
Kerry does NOT oppose Same-Sex Marriage. He knows it is a losing issue, and is a smart candidate. He knows if he comes out and says he is in favor of it, he will get trounced. He gives lip service to marriage in front of some groups, but two years ago he signed a letter issued by homosexual Rep. Barney Frank urging Massachusetts state lawmakers to drop an amendment limiting nuptials to a man and a woman. Kerry said ""We believe it would be a grave error for Massachusetts to enshrine in our Constitution a provision which would have such a negative effect on so many of our fellow residents."

Kerry is absolutely in favor of same-sex marriage, he just knows he can't come out and say it.

The people are mad enough in Western Pennsylvania for this issue to matter. Even Democratic Polls of the State can't get anything better than a Tie 46-46. All of the Independent Polling Groups have Bush up.

(Also Remember it was Western Pennsylvania that ran Conservative Rep. Pat Toomey's Vote Totals up when he almost upset Arlen Specter)

People continue to mistake how Conservative Pennsylvania is on Culture issues (Guns, Abortion, Homosexuals) Philadelphia is not Represenative of the Rest of the State.





Reply #6 from JoeUser Forums Top
If I may chime in, I run a not-for-profit site that tracks statewide presidential campaign polling data.

---> Link

We have nine polls listed for Pennsylvania taken between March 3 and April 25 (meaning they are a little dated). Of the nine, four include Nader, five do not. The deadline for Nader's ballot qualification is not until August 2nd, so it'll be a while before we find out if Nader is on the ballot in PA or not.

Of the Nader polls, Bush leads in three and is tied in the most recent. Of the non-Nader polls, Kerry leads in four and Bush leads in the most recent.

All of these polls were done before the prisoner abuse scandal in Iraq. If nationwide polls are any indication, Bush will have dropped slightly in the polls in PA because of this. So it's inappropriate to say that Bush is winning in the polls in PA. The state is definitely a battleground state at this point.

Furthermore, Roy Moore has not yet declared whether he will accept the Constitution Party nomination or not. Roy Moore, for those of you who are not aware, is the former Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court. He lost his position after a battle regarding a momument to the Ten Commandments. Anyway, Moore has spent the past several months traveling the US speaking to evangelists at churches, conventions, rallies, and the like. Should he run, he will likely be on the ballot in more than 40 states (The Constitution Party qualified on 41 in 2000). He is absolutely adored by the evangelical community and has the ability to drain away large numbers of votes away from Bush. He has the capability of doing to Bush what Nader did to Gore (ie; cost him the election).

So before you declare that PA will go Bush, keep in mind that those angry conservatives you are so fond of discussing may wind up voting for Moore.

--Aaron

PS, Nationwide, a third of evangelists polled opposed the Constitutional Amendment against gay marriage. They don't support gay marriage, but oppose the idea of a constitutional amendment. Also, a CNN poll released today that 39% of likely voters believe that Bush is better than Kerry on the issue of gay marriage. However, an identical number responded that Kerry was better than Bush on the issue of gay marriage. So it's not turning out to be the banner social issue that Karl Rove had hoped it would be.

PPS, By not-for-profit I don't mean that my site a registered charity. I just mean it's a site I run as a hobby and has neither advertisements nor a business model to make money.
Reply #8 from JoeUser Forums Top
In the 4 most recent Polls Bush Leads:

3/29/04 Keystone Poll Link 565 RV 4.1% Bush 46% Kerry 40% Bush +6
4/19/04 Quinnipiac Link 769 RV, Nader not an option 3.5% Bush 46% Kerry 42% Bush +4
4/19/04 Quinnipiac Link 769 RV, Nader an option 3.5% Bush 45% Kerry 39% Bush +6
4/25/04 Pew Research Link 867 RV 4% Bush 42% Kerry 42% Push (Pew is a Democrat Polling Firm)

I am sure that the poster above knows that Kerry's leads prior to that had only been at the most +2

Bush is doing better in Pennsylvania than he is in either Florida or Ohio.

Roy Moore recently stated that he was not interested in running for president right now, that he instead wants to look at running for the Governorship of Alabama in two years.

State by State polls on the Same-Sex marriage issue (The State by State polls are better than National Polls) Have consistantly shown that in the Battleground states, Bush wins on the Same-Sex Marriage issue. Pennsylvania Statewide was 63% opposed (The lowest Opposition was the City of Philadelphia where only 54% were opposed) The HIGHEST Opposition came from Western Pennsylvania were 76% were opposed. Western Pennsylvania was the only region of the state to not only Oppose Same-Sex Marriage, But also wanted a Constitutional Amendment Banning it.

Because those numbers are coming out of Western Pennsylvania, Kerry's got a problem. If it was Amish Country, (That traditionally votes Republican anyway) Kerry wouldn't have to worry so much, Those numbers are coming out of one of the Strongest Democratic Areas of the State. Kerry is not polling anywhere near as well as he should be in this region, and to top it off, neither are other Democrats.

As I stated above, the voters are actually saying they won't vote for a Democrat for anything over this issue, and It is going to heat up this summer. Right now it has been kind of quiet and people are thinking that it simply won't come to their state, when Judges start pushing the issue, mark my words you are going to see how much of a hornets nest Kerry has on his hands.
Reply #9 from JoeUser Forums Top
What makes you think this is going to heat up as a story over the summer? No democrats or partisan judges are going to upset the pre-election waters by making any controversial rulings. I guarantee that gay marriage, as adicted as some PA republicans might be to fantisizing about how evil it is to have two gay men kissing in public or fornicating in a bedroom, will not be as big an issue as the war, the economy, or any lingering scandals of character around either Bush or Kerry. This state is by all means up for grabs.
Reply #10 from JoeUser Forums Top
What makes you think this is going to heat up as a story over the summer?

Well Considering that MA Will start Monday, It is only going to be a matter of time before someone sues in Federal Court, Once that happens, people will begin to realize that the Federal Judiciary is going to try to force it on their states. As of right now, people think, "Oh, that just CA, MA, OR, it isn't going to come here." When they see if coming, things are going to heat up.

You seem to think that it is only Pennsylvania Republicans that are heated over this issue, I am telling you that it is Democrats and Republicans, The articles that I read had interviews with DEMOCRATS who Voted for Clinton and Gore, They said that they are voting for Bush SOLEY on the Marriage issue.

I am talking Specifically about Western Pennsylvania here, which is exactly why Kerry is in Trouble in the State. He needs Western PA to win.
Reply #11 from JoeUser Forums Top
Well, can't resist throwing my 2 cents in. I'm from Western PA. While I don't know if dittomonkey911 has it right on the Gay Marrage issue specifically, he is quite correct about the generalities. Western PA is Democratic as a hold over from when "everyone" worked in the steel mills or depended on them for their living, and so nearly everyone was pro-unions. But W. PA also has the old immigrant work ethic thing going for it. That makes them socially conservitive. Add to that age demographics. PA rivals Florida in per capita senior citizens. When the mills collapsed in the early 80's, an entire generation left the state in search of better jobs elsewhere. Dems win west PA on issues like Social Security, Medacare, job training, and the standard "I'm for the working family" fare. In 1992, the Democratic governer was kept from speaking at the national convention because of his pro-life stand! Meanwhile, we have a Republican senator who is pro-choice (Spector) who notibably, is from Philladelphia.
Reply #12 from JoeUser Forums Top
People think Pennsylvania and automatically lump Pennsylvania in with Philadelphia. The majority of Pennsylvanians are Pro-Life, Pro-Gun, and Pro-Family. ESPECIALLY in Central and Western PA. Central PA Has traditionally been Democratic, Central PA Republican, Philadelphia is the Liberal Area of the State, (Even the Republicans in the Philadelphia Suburbs are the Country Club types Fiscally Conservative and Socially Liberal.)
Reply #13 from JoeUser Forums Top
I found this website which has the latest polls per state, I think Pennsylvania and Florida will go to Kerry, as does this poll which is done by an extrememly optimistic conservitive.

Link
Reply #14 from JoeUser Forums Top
He is using a National Poll to get state by state numbers. He needs to take State by State Polls in order to get any kind of realistic number. The last INDEPENDENT Poll in Pennsylvania had bush up 6 points. The last Independent poll in Florida had Bush up 1 point.

West Virginia has Bush up 4, Arizona Bush up 8, Missouri Bush up 7, New Mexico Bush up 1, and Wisconsin Bush up 12.

Bush is Down in Ohio by 7.
Reply #15 from JoeUser Forums Top
Polls are fleeting things. As long as Iraq sucks all the oxygen up in the media, the polls will reflect how the people feel we are doing in Iraq. If (and it's a big if) we can disengauge successfully from Iraq by the election, or if it looks like things are going that way, Bush's polls bounce right back up. Does that really tell us anything about the election? I think it's really too early for the polls to matter. If it was mid September, I'd be more interested.

Was it Ed Koch that said "All politics is local"?

PA is annoyed with Governer Rendell in Harrisburg, and Pittsburgh is hot at Mayor Murphey. For those out of state, both are Democrats. Both sets of problems have to do with taxes, budgets, and keeping services going. We'll see how much support the Dems get if Rendell doubles the tolls on the turnpike! PennDOT is not well loved here. And I haven't heard anyone in love with some of the proposals to lower the property tax by raising sales or income taxes yet. These issues are likely to make Dems less likely to come out and vote for their guy. If Kerry looses Alleghney county, or wins it with low turnout and margin, he won't carry the state, and I don't know if the Grant Street political machine can deliver Pittsburgh this time around.

I'm not saying that Bush will win PA. Kerry will probably win the younger voters just on the Iraq issue. But if he wants a win in PA, (and probably the country) he needs to do more than make this a referendum on Bush's performance, because right now, nobody really thinks he would be any better.

Note, my opinion and a buck ninty-nine will get you a gallon of gas... one thing Kerry has in his favor is the price keeps going up.
Reply #16 from JoeUser Forums Top
Genghis, in Oregon that means your opinion is worth 20+ cents. Good for you!

Cheers
Reply #17 from JoeUser Forums Top
Genghis, in Oregon that means your opinion is worth 20+ cents. Good for you!
Reply #18 from JoeUser Forums Top
PennDOT is not well loved here.
GH, I can't think of any state that loves its DOT. Tennessee is especially bad. TDOT has a huge portion of the budget, but they work so slow that by the time they are done, they need to redo that area because where they diverted people is in horrible shape. And back again. But I remember the Turnpike in Pennsylvania and how bad shape it is in. I don't think even double tolls would fix THAT.