I have played several games now, and in none of them has military been my primary focus.
My initial "learn how to play" games were civilization based (zergs ftw!) but I went for the quest ending -- storm dragon camps made this easy).
And then I played a large random game with a mage sovereign (where I cloned Pourpupine and tweaked a few things), and in that one, I had no champions and a small and useless army, and once I learned how to play in that style... nothing has a chance.
Anyways, here is my take on the victory conditions:
Military: I like this victory condition because it lets me play for a long time without worrying that the game will end too soon. The AI has to defeat me before I can lose.
Diplomacy -- I worry with this one that if I enter into any diplomatic agreements that the AI might complete this before I. Quite likely the game has been designed to prevent this, but to avoid that possibility I play with this turned off.
Quest -- that was interesting, but mostly you just need to build up enough strength, and then it's easy. Perhaps though there are secrets in the game that allow for differences in quest progression and story?
Magic -- this is way too cheap. My civilization sovereign found the magic victory condition cheaper to build than one high-end company. So I have ignored this victory condition and routinely disable it (I probably like playing the game for a longer period of time than this victory condition was designed for).
Anyways, the AI seems to have an early game advantage, but because of how effects compound I think we have an advantage if we can survive long enough to get good force multipliers. This makes, for me anyways, starting near a military AI sovereign a ruinous event, while starting near anything else seems to work well for me.